Tuesday, December 5, 2006

Rogers a potential Levin challenger?

Hey, if it's in the NYT, it must be fit to print. But don't get your hopes up too much:

Levin’s popularity and Michigan’s Democratic lean — Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sen. Debbie Stabenow were easily re-elected last month — make him a formidable opponent. Already the longest-serving senator in Michigan history, Levin has dominated recent elections and won a fifth term in 2002 with 61
percent of the vote.

Rep. Mike Rogers, Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and state Attorney General Mike Cox have been mentioned as potential Senate candidates.

Paul Abramson, a political scientist at Michigan State University, said the most logical GOP opponent would be Rogers, who was first elected to his Lansing-centered 8th District in 2000.

“Rogers has an extremely safe House seat and the question is whether he’d be willing to put that at risk to take an outside chance of winning,” Abramson told CQPolitics.com.

But, Abramson added, outside of health concerns, “I think some real fates would have to intervene before [Levin] would be the underdog in the election.”

Michigan Republicans, meanwhile, argued that the timing of Levin’s announcement indicated he was concerned about winning re-election.

“A re-election announcement this early, before most people have closed their books on the last campaign, signals loud and clear to Michigan Republicans that this seat will be in play in 2008 and we are ready for the challenge,” state GOP chairman Saul Anuzis said in a statement.

This seat will "be in play"? See, this is why I'm so happy that the MI-GOP kept Saul Anuzis around after his disastrous performance as party chairman this year. The guy couldn't beat Debbie Stabenow after her first term -- when a Senator is usually at their weakest -- and he thinks he can beat Carl Levin, the longest-serving Senator in Michigan's history? Puh-lease.

Who's Saul gonna find to run? I mean, I happen to think that Mike Rogers is an arrogant jerk, but he's not a complete idiot. Carl Levin has been in the US Senate since 1979, he's one of America's ten best senators, and it'll be even more difficult to unseat him during a presidential election year, since Michigan's electoral votes haven't gone to a republican since 1988. I'll be shocked if that trend changes in 2008.

Don't get me wrong, I would love it if Mike Rogers ran for the Senate in two years... it would open up his seat in the 8th district, and give dems their best shot at taking it back since Mike replaced Debbie in 2001. But again, I just don't think it's in the cards. As for Cox and Land, I think they're both eyeing runs for governor in 2010, so my guess is that they will sit this race out as well. Who else does that leave? My bet is for another token republican candidate to take the fall against Levin like Raczkowski did in 2002, which means we still need to beat Rogers in the 8th.

Back to work...


Communications guru said...

I had the same thought as you when I read Anuzis’s quote, as well as confusion. Why would the Democrats have to signal the Republicans that the seat is in play? Isn’t every seat in play, and why wouldn’t they know that? I’m so glad they kept him.
I followed Rogers around during the 2000 campaign when I was a reporter, and I was very impressed with his speaking style and presentation. Even though I had heard the same speech many times, he made it sound fresh every time. It would sure be nice to see the 8th District the swing district it once was, but the gerrymandering of it in 2002 has made it much more Republican. I see Rogers staying where he is.

See you Thursday in my, and Mr. Rogers'. neighborhood in lovely Livingston County

Anonymous said...

Gaspare here chiming in from Oxford. I've added this link to my favorites. I'll try to chime in regularly. One thing we could do is link to Rogers website and comment on his press releases. Also add progressive commentary to his floor speeches where he'll undoubtedly oppose everything Democrat. Fantastic that you set up this blog. It's tough for me to make Phil's monthly meetings.

As far as Rogers being a Levin challenger, more power to him.

mark said...

I hope it happens.
Then Levin can put an end to Rogers' congressional career.

LiberalLucy said...

Gaspare! Such an honor to have you stop by!

Thank you for adding us to your blogroll, and I hope to see you stopping by more often!

Thanks also for the great ideas, we'll get right on that. :-)

Anonymous said...

Hey, this blog is like a breath of fresh air! It would be a dream-come-true for Rogers to run against Levin, but I agree, Mike is dumb but not quite that dumb! I'll just have to go back to my old fantasy: Rogers being discovered in women's underwear in a hotel room with Rush Limbaugh...

mark said...

...and Rush with an empty Viagra bottle, with a cavity search in progress.